How do you calculate a risk/reward ratio?

Divide the distance from entry to target by the distance from entry to stop. Entering at $50 with a stop at $47 and a target at $59 is $9 of reward against $3 of risk, a ratio of 3.0 to 1.

What win rate do I need to break even?

One divided by one plus the ratio. At 3:1 you break even winning 25% of the time; at 1:1 you need 50%. This is arithmetic about the ratio itself and says nothing about how often any particular approach actually wins.

Does a higher ratio make a position better?

Not on its own. A distant target improves the ratio on paper but may be reached far less often, and the two move together in practice. The ratio is only half the picture; the frequency of each outcome is the other half, and neither is knowable in advance.

风险回报比计算器

比较一笔头寸承担的风险与可能的收益，并查看在该比率下仅为保本所需的胜率。这只是算术 — 它不对任何结果的实际发生频率作出判断。

入场价$止损价$目标价$股数（可选）补充以美元计的风险与收益。您的胜率（可选）%仅在您已实测的情况下填写。会显示每股期望值。

风险回报比: 3.00 : 1
保本胜率: 25.0%
每股风险: $3.00
每股收益: $9.00

目标定得更远会让比率在纸面上更好看，但通常也更难达到。比率只是一半，另一半是每种结果出现的频率。

计算方式

R = (target - entry) / (entry - stop)
break-even win rate = 1 / (1 + R)
expectancy = winRate x reward - (1 - winRate) x risk

entry - stop: risk per share if the stop is hit
target - entry: reward per share if the target is reached
winRate: share of outcomes that reach the target, if you supply one

算例

Entry $50.00, stop $47.00, target $59.00 gives $3.00 of risk against $9.00 of reward, a 3.0:1 ratio. At that ratio the break-even win rate is 1 / (1 + 3) = 25%.

这里用到的术语

止损: 投资者为限制损失而计划退出的预设价格。这是用于风险管理的参考水平，并非投资建议。

常见问题

How do you calculate a risk/reward ratio?: Divide the distance from entry to target by the distance from entry to stop. Entering at $50 with a stop at $47 and a target at $59 is $9 of reward against $3 of risk, a ratio of 3.0 to 1.
What win rate do I need to break even?: One divided by one plus the ratio. At 3:1 you break even winning 25% of the time; at 1:1 you need 50%. This is arithmetic about the ratio itself and says nothing about how often any particular approach actually wins.
Does a higher ratio make a position better?: Not on its own. A distant target improves the ratio on paper but may be reached far less often, and the two move together in practice. The ratio is only half the picture; the frequency of each outcome is the other half, and neither is knowable in advance.

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